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WRF動力降尺度方法在廣東近海風資源評估中的適用性分析

作者：杜夢蛟¹ 2 王臻臻³ 張磊² 文仁強¹ 李華⁴ 5 夏靜雯³ 辛欣³ 易侃¹ 賈天下¹

單位：1. 中國長江三峽集團有限公司科學技術(shù)研究院, 北京 100038;
2. 中國長江三峽集團有限公司廣東分公司, 廣東廣州 510030;
3. 寧波市鄞州區(qū)氣象局, 浙江寧波 315194;
4. 南京信息工程大學水利部水文氣象災害機理與預警重點實驗室/氣象災害預報預警與評估協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中

關(guān)鍵詞：風能資源適用性評估海上風電 WRF模式

分類號：P457.5

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2025·42·第一期（89-97）

摘要：

利用WRF模式對ERA5再分析數(shù)據(jù)進行動力降尺度，獲得近海高分辨率的WRF數(shù)據(jù)，并利用3座測風塔觀測數(shù)據(jù)對WRF高分辨率數(shù)據(jù)和ERA5再分析數(shù)據(jù)進行適用性分析。結(jié)果表明：WRF模式的風速與觀測更為接近，ERA5易低估各層風速；WRF和ERA5對廣東近海主導風向的再現(xiàn)能力基本一致，且均能反映主導風向；WRF和ERA5風速的時間序列與觀測的相關(guān)性都很高，均通過99%顯著性檢驗；相較于ERA5，WRF擬合得到的威布爾參數(shù)與觀測更為接近。因此相較于ERA5，WRF模擬數(shù)據(jù)更適用于對廣東風能資源的評估。利用WRF模擬得到的廣東近海風資源空間分布結(jié)果表明，廣東近海風能密度大（>200 W/m²），有效風速的出現(xiàn)頻率高（>0.88），且具有單一或兩個主導風向，以上特征有利于廣東近海的風能資源開發(fā)。

This study employs the WRF model (Weather Research and Forecasting Model, WRF) to dynamically downscale ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis v5) reanalysis data, yielding high-resolution WRF data. The applicability of the WRF high-resolution data and ERA5 reanalysis data is assessed using observation data of 3 wind towers. Results show that wind speeds derived from the WRF exhibit closer agreement with observations, whereas ERA5 tends to underestimate wind speeds. Both WRF and ERA5 demonstrate comparable capabilities in reproducing the dominant wind directions in offshore Guangdong, reflecting these directions as well. The correlation coefficient between WRF (ERA5) and the observations exceeds the 99% confidence level. Compared with ERA5, the performance of Weibull fitting using WRF data is closer to the observations. Consequently, WRF data are more suitable than ERA5 for assessing wind energy resources in offshore Guangdong. The spatial distribution of wind resources, as derived from WRF data, reveals substantial wind power densities (>200 W/m²), a high frequency of effective wind speeds (>0.88). These factors, combined with the presence of one or two dominant wind directions, collectively indicate favorable conditions for wind energy development in offshore Guangdong.

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