中國(guó)近海海域多模式海面風(fēng)速預(yù)報(bào)評(píng)估

作者：張弛1  王久珂2  魏立新1  郭安博宇3  黃煥卿1  劉曉燕1  陳劍橋4

單位：1. 國(guó)家海洋環(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心, 北京 100081; 2. 中山大學(xué)人工智能學(xué)院, 廣東 珠海 5190822; 3. 國(guó)家海洋環(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心 自然資源部海洋災(zāi)害預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室, 北京 100081; 4. 南方海洋科學(xué)與工程廣東省實(shí)驗(yàn)室(珠海), 廣東 珠海, 5190822

關(guān)鍵詞：數(shù)值模式 海面風(fēng) 風(fēng)速預(yù)報(bào) 浮標(biāo) 評(píng)估

分類號(hào)：P457.5

出版年·卷·期（頁(yè)碼）：2025·42·第一期（81-88）

摘要：

由于海上觀測(cè)資料的匱乏，中國(guó)近海海域風(fēng)場(chǎng)預(yù)報(bào)研究相對(duì)不足。研究評(píng)估了南方海洋科學(xué)與工程廣東省實(shí)驗(yàn)室（珠海）自主改進(jìn)的天氣研究和預(yù)報(bào)模式（WRF）在2023年1—7月對(duì)中國(guó)近海海域海面風(fēng)速的預(yù)報(bào)性能。選取歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報(bào)中心的集成預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)模式（IFS）和美國(guó)國(guó)家環(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心的全球預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)模式（GFS）作為對(duì)比，預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效包括24 h、48 h、72 h、96 h和120 h，采用中國(guó)近海浮標(biāo)觀測(cè)實(shí)況數(shù)據(jù)作為對(duì)比基準(zhǔn)。研究結(jié)果表明：WRF模式的預(yù)報(bào)精度在多個(gè)預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效下均優(yōu)于GFS，在部分預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效內(nèi)優(yōu)于IFS模式；對(duì)于高風(fēng)速區(qū)間，WRF模式在24 h和48 h的預(yù)報(bào)表現(xiàn)尤為突出。

Due to the scarcity of ocean observational data, researches on wind field forecasting assessment in these areas remains relatively rare. This study assesses the performance of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model implemented at the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) on forecasting sea surface wind speeds at lead times of 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hours, in China's nearshore areas from January to July 2023, against the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Global Forecast System (GFS) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and real-time buoy data. The results show that the WRF model has higher accuracy than the GFS and IFS models in several forecast periods. In high wind speed range, the WRF model is particularly well at 24 and 48 hours.

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