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基于譜逼近探究臺風(fēng)初始場誤差對路徑誤差的影響

單位：1. 自然資源部海洋環(huán)境探測技術(shù)與應(yīng)用重點實驗室, 廣東廣州 510300;
2. 廣東省海洋資源與近岸工程重點實驗室, 中山大學(xué)海洋科學(xué)學(xué)院, 廣東廣州 510275;
3. 自然資源部南海發(fā)展研究院, 廣東廣州 510300

關(guān)鍵詞：初始場誤差非對稱對流位渦趨勢診斷路徑誤差

分類號：P457.8

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2025·42·第一期（71-80）

摘要：

針對多層嵌套中尺度天氣研究與預(yù)報模式（WRF），以1713號臺風(fēng)“天鴿”為例，研究不同的熱啟動方式對臺風(fēng)模擬精度的影響，并以1614號臺風(fēng)“莫蘭蒂”、1822號臺風(fēng)“山竹”和2309號臺風(fēng)“蘇拉”為例進(jìn)行模擬驗證。結(jié)果表明：使用譜逼近能夠減少大尺度環(huán)境場誤差，改善臺風(fēng)周圍環(huán)境場，減小多層嵌套WRF模式的初始場誤差；此技術(shù)能避免由于垂直風(fēng)切變的增強和累積降雨量的增大，減弱了非對稱對流活動的強度；如果不使用該技術(shù)，加熱項將削弱水平平流項對臺風(fēng)的引導(dǎo)作用，導(dǎo)致24～72 h臺風(fēng)路徑模擬誤差增加。結(jié)果揭示：采用譜逼近技術(shù)可有效縮小大尺度環(huán)境場的誤差，優(yōu)化臺風(fēng)周邊環(huán)境場，并降低多層嵌套WRF模式初始場的誤差，防止垂直風(fēng)切變過度增強和累積降雨量異常增加，從而減輕非對稱對流活動的強度，避免加熱項削弱水平平流項對臺風(fēng)的導(dǎo)向作用，提高臺風(fēng)路徑模擬準(zhǔn)確性。

Based on multi-layer nested Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF), the effects of different hot initializing methods on the simulation accuracy of No.1713 Typhoon "Hato" were studied, and No.1614 Typhoon "Meranti", No.1822 Typhoon "Mangkhut" and No.2309 Typhoon "Saola" are chosen as verification cases. The results showed that spectral nudging method could reduce the errors of large scale environment and initial field of the WRF model, and improve the environment field of the typhoon, which can avoid the elevation of vertical wind shear and cumulative rainfall, and weaken the intensity of the asymmetric convective activity of the typhoon. Otherwise, the diabatic heating would weaken the guidance of the horizontal advection to the typhoons, leading to an increase in the simulation error of typhoon paths within 24~72 hours.

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