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徑流與潮差對(duì)欽江河口鹽水入侵距離的影響機(jī)制

單位：1. 重慶交通大學(xué) 國(guó)家內(nèi)河航道工程技術(shù)研究中心, 重慶 400074;
2. 重慶交通大學(xué) 河海學(xué)院, 重慶 400074;
3. 中交第四航務(wù)工程勘察設(shè)計(jì)院有限公司, 廣東廣州 510290

關(guān)鍵詞：欽江河口徑流潮差數(shù)值模擬鹽水入侵距離

分類號(hào)：P731.12

出版年·卷·期（頁(yè)碼）：2025·42·第一期（56-63）

摘要：

構(gòu)建三維數(shù)學(xué)模型，定量分析不同徑流和潮差組合下欽江河口鹽水入侵距離。結(jié)果表明：鹽水入侵距離隨徑流的增大而減小，隨潮差的增大而增大；潮差較小時(shí)，鹽水入侵距離與徑流之間呈線性關(guān)系，隨著潮差增大，二者之間的非線性關(guān)系逐漸增強(qiáng)，滿足冪函數(shù)y=axⁿ關(guān)系。基于非線性多元回歸，構(gòu)建欽江河口鹽水入侵距離預(yù)測(cè)公式。

In this paper, a three-dimensional mathematical model was constructed to quantitatively analyze the saltwater intrusion distance in the Qinjiang River Estuary under different combinations of runoff and tidal range. The results show that the change in saltwater intrusion distance was inversely proportional to the change in river runoff and positively proportional to the change in tidal range. Specifically, under conditions of minimal tidal range, a linear correlation is observed between the saltwater intrusion distance and river discharge. Conversely, as the tidal range intensifies, the relationship becomes increasingly nonlinear, conforming to a power function (y=axⁿ). Furthermore, this investigation has yielded a predictive equation for saltwater intrusion distance, derived from nonlinear multiple regression analysis, which has been substantiated through rigorous validation. This formula is poised to aid in the optimization of local water resource allocation and management strategies.

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