精品无人国产偷自产在线,97精品超碰一区二区三区

秋季巴倫支海-喀拉海海冰面積異常對渤海、黃海冰情的影響

單位：1. 中國華能集團(tuán)清潔能源技術(shù)研究院有限公司, 北京 102209;
2. 國家能源海上風(fēng)電工程與運行技術(shù)研發(fā)中心, 北京 102209;
3. 國家海洋環(huán)境預(yù)報中心, 北京 100081;
4. 華能遼寧清潔能源有限責(zé)任公司, 遼寧沈陽 110015;
5. 遼寧省自然資源事務(wù)服務(wù)中心, 遼寧沈陽 1

關(guān)鍵詞：海冰渤海黃海巴倫支海-喀拉海冰情預(yù)測

分類號：P73l.32

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2025·42·第一期（32-37）

摘要：

利用美國國家冰雪數(shù)據(jù)中心海冰覆蓋面積月平均數(shù)據(jù)、美國氣象環(huán)境預(yù)報中心/美國國家大氣研究中心月平均再分析資料和渤海、黃海冰情等級數(shù)據(jù)，研究了秋季巴倫支海-喀拉海海冰面積異常對渤海、黃海冰情的影響。結(jié)果表明：去趨勢的秋季巴倫支海-喀拉海海冰面積與渤海、黃海冰情等級呈顯著的負(fù)相關(guān)，相關(guān)系數(shù)為-0.54；秋季巴倫支海-喀拉海海冰面積異常偏少，有利于高緯度冷空氣南下，冷空氣活動頻繁造成冬季我國北方地區(qū)氣溫偏低，導(dǎo)致渤海、黃海冰情偏重，反之亦然；若前期秋季巴倫支海-喀拉海海冰面積呈負(fù)異常，則冬季渤海、黃海發(fā)生嚴(yán)重冰情的概率較大，近42年冬季渤海、黃海冰情等級在3級以上的年份，前期秋季巴倫支海-喀拉海海冰面積均為負(fù)異常。因此，前期秋季巴倫支海-喀拉海海冰面積可以作為我國冬季渤海、黃海冰情的預(yù)測因子。

The effect of autumn sea ice area anomaly in the Barents-Kara Seas on ice condition of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea was analyzed based on the National Snow and Ice Data Center monthly sea ice area data, the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data, and the ice grade data in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. The results show that the detrended autumn sea ice area anomaly in the Barents-Kara Seas is negatively correlated to the ice grade in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea with a correlation of -0.54. During the low autumn sea ice year in the Barents-Kara Seas, the frequency of cold air activity increases and winter temperature in north China is below normal, leading to heavier ice condition in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, and vice versa. When autumn sea ice area is negative anomaly in the BarentsKara Seas, there is a high probability of heavier ice condition in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. Autumn sea ice area is negative anomaly in the Barents-Kara Seas when ice grade is above Grade 3 in the past 42 years. Therefore, the autumn sea ice area in the Barents-Kara Seas is a good predictor of ice condition in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea.

參考文獻(xiàn)：

[1] 劉煜, 吳輝碇. 第1 講渤、黃海的海冰[J]. 海洋預(yù)報, 2017, 34(3): 94-101. LIU Y, WU H D. Sea ice in the Bohai Sea and the northern Yellow Sea[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2017, 34(3): 94-101.
[2] 包澄瀾. 海冰災(zāi)害及預(yù)報[M]. 北京: 海洋出版社, 1991: 137-139. BAO C L. Sea ice disaster and forecast[M]. Beijing: China Ocean Press, 1991: 137-139.
[3] 自然資源部. 2010年中國海洋災(zāi)害公報[EB/OL]. (2011-04-22) [2011-04-22]. http://gc.mnr.gov.cn/201806/t20180619_1798014.html. Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China. Ministry of natural resources China marine disaster bulletin 2010[EB/OL]. (2011-04-22)[2011-04-22]. http://gc.mnr.gov.cn/201806/t20180619_1798014.html.
[4] 白珊, 劉欽政, 吳輝碇, 等. 渤海、北黃海海冰與氣候變化的關(guān)系[J]. 海洋學(xué)報, 2001, 23(5): 33-41. BAI S, LIU Q Z, WU H D, et al. Relation of ice conditions with climate change in the Bohai Sea and the northern Huanghai Sea[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2001, 23(5): 33-41.
[5] 劉欽政, 黃嘉佑, 白珊, 等. 渤海冬季海冰氣候變異的成因分析[J]. 海洋學(xué)報, 2004, 26(2): 11-19. LIU Q Z, HUANG J Y, BAI S, et al. Studies on the causation of sea ice decadal variation in the Bohai Sea of China[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2004, 26(2): 11-19.
[6] 李春花, 劉欽政, 黃煥卿. 渤海、北黃海冰情與太平洋副熱帶高壓的統(tǒng)計關(guān)系[J]. 海洋通報, 2009, 28(5): 43-47. LI C H, LIU Q Z, HUANG H Q. Statistic relation between sea ice in the Bohai Sea and North Yellow Sea of China and the subtropical high in the Pacific Ocean[J]. Marine Science Bulletin, 2009, 28(5): 43-47.
[7] 劉煜, 劉欽政, 隋俊鵬, 等. 渤、黃海冬季海冰對大氣環(huán)流及氣候變化的響應(yīng)[J]. 海洋學(xué)報, 2013, 35(3): 18-27. LIU Y, LIU Q Z, SUI J P, et al. The respond of ice for the Bohai Sea and the Huanghai Sea with the general circulation and the climate change in winters[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2013, 35(3): 18-27.
[8] 唐茂寧, 洪潔莉, 劉煜, 等. 氣候因子對渤海冰情影響的統(tǒng)計分析[J]. 海洋通報, 2015, 34(2): 152-157. TANG M N, HONG J L, LIU Y, et al. Statistical analysis of climatic factors impacting on the Bohai Sea ice[J]. Marine Science Bulletin, 2015, 34(2): 152-157.
[9] PETOUKHOV V, SEMENOV V A. A link between reduced BarentsKara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2010, 115(D21): D21111.
[10] HONDA M, INOUE J, YAMANE S. Influence of low Arctic seaice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36(8): L08707.
[11] WU B Y, HANDORF D, DETHLOFF K, et al. Winter weather patterns over Northern Eurasia and Arctic Sea ice loss[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2013, 141(11): 3786-3800.
[12] ZHAO J P, CAO Y, SHI J X. Core region of Arctic Oscillation and the main atmospheric events impact on the Arctic[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33(22): L22708.
[13] WU B Y, SU J Z, ZHANG R H. Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2011, 56(30): 3220-3228.
[14] 周群, 魏立新, 黃煥卿. 秋季巴倫支海海溫異常對冬季我國渤海冰情的可能影響[J]. 海洋學(xué)報, 2016, 38(3): 40-48. ZHOU Q, WEI L X, HUANG H Q. Possible effect of SSTa in the Barents Sea in fall on the variations of Bohai Sea ice in the following winter[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2016, 38(3): 40-48.
[15] 武炳義. 北極海冰融化影響東亞冬季天氣和氣候的研究進(jìn)展以及學(xué)術(shù)爭論焦點問題[J]. 大氣科學(xué), 2018, 42(4): 786-805. WU B Y. Progresses in the impact study of arctic sea ice loss on wintertime weather and climate variability over East Asia and key academic disputes[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2018, 42(4): 786-805.
[16] XU M, TIAN W S, ZHANG J K, et al. Impact of sea ice reduction in the Barents and Kara Seas on the variation of the East Asian trough in late winter[J]. Journal of Climate, 2021, 34(3): 1081-1097.
[17] NSIDC. Sea ice index, Version 3.0[EB/OL]. [2021-11-22]. https://nsidc.org/data/G02135/versions/3.
[18] YAO Y, LUO D H, DAI A G, et al. Increased quasi stationarity and persistence of winter Ural blocking and Eurasian extreme cold events in response to arctic warming. Part I: insights from observational analyses[J]. Journal of Climate, 2017, 30(10): 3549-3568.
[19] 李言蹊, 陳海山. 冬季亞洲中緯度極端低溫事件與巴倫支-喀拉海異常增暖的關(guān)系及聯(lián)系機制[J]. 大氣科學(xué), 2021, 45(4): 889-900. LI Y X, CHEN H S. The relationship between winter extremely low temperature events in mid-latitude Asia and abnormal warming over Barents-Kara Seas and associated mechanism[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2021, 45(4): 889-900.
[20] 趙倩, 劉煜, 唐茂寧, 等. 2012-2013年冬季渤海海冰數(shù)值預(yù)報[J]. 海洋預(yù)報, 2014, 31(2): 73-79. ZHAO Q, LIU Y, TANG M N, et al. Numerical sea ice forecast for the Bohai Sea in the winter of 2012-2013[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2014, 31(2): 73-79.
[21] 秦大河, 周波濤, 效存德. 冰凍圈變化及其對中國氣候的影響[J]. 氣象學(xué)報, 2014, 72(5): 869-879. QIN D H, ZHOU B T, XIAO C D. Progress in studies of cryospheric changes and their impacts on climate of China[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2014, 72(5): 869-879.

服務(wù)與反饋：

【文章下載】【發(fā)表評論】【查看評論】【加入收藏】