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基于數(shù)值模擬的2024年10月渤海和黃海沿岸海水倒灌事件成因分析

單位：1. 國家海洋環(huán)境預報中心, 北京 100081;
2. 國家海洋環(huán)境預報中心自然資源部海洋災害預報技術重點實驗室, 北京 100081

關鍵詞：渤海和黃海沿岸強冷空氣風暴潮海水倒灌邊緣波數(shù)值模擬半封閉陸架海

分類號：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2025·42·第一期（1-10）

摘要：

2024年10月18—21日，渤海和黃海沿岸發(fā)生了罕見的強溫帶風暴潮過程，導致遼寧、河北和天津部分低洼地區(qū)出現(xiàn)較嚴重的海水倒灌，風暴增水分兩個階段，第一階段由強冷空氣引起，第二階段由邊緣波引起。為探究其成因，采用美國國家環(huán)境預報中心再分析風場開展風暴潮數(shù)值模擬，渤海和黃海海域浮標位置處再分析風速的均方根誤差為2.1 m/s，數(shù)值模擬的沿岸潮位站在第一階段和第二階段的最大增水平均相對誤差分別為13.7%和8.2%，證明數(shù)值模擬可以準確還原風暴潮運動和傳播，即邊緣波自朝鮮半島西部沿岸向我國黃海北部沿岸、渤海沿岸和黃海南部沿岸逆時針傳播。采用數(shù)值模擬結果分析黃海南部斷面和渤海海峽斷面流量發(fā)現(xiàn)，兩個斷面第二階段的海水流入量比第一階段的流出量分別高出66%和75%，這也是第二階段由邊緣波引起的增水大、范圍廣且時間長的原因。此外，邊緣波和風對第二階段風暴潮的貢獻占比分別為94%和6%，邊緣波起絕對主導作用。

A rare strong extratropical storm surge event occurred along the coasts of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea from October 18 to 21, 2024, resulting in seawater backward in some low-lying areas of Liaoning Province, Hebei Province, and Tianjin City. The storm surge was divided into two stages: the first stage was caused by strong cold air, and the second stage was caused by edge waves. To explore its causes, this study conducted a numerical simulation of the storm surge using NCEP（National Centers for Environmental Prediction）reanalysis wind fields. The root mean squared error of the reanalysis wind speed at the buoy locations in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea was 2.1 m/s. The average relative errors of the simulated maximum storm surge at coastal tidal gauges in the first and second stages are 13.7% and 8.2% respectively, proving that the numerical simulation can accurately reproduce the movement and propagation of the storm surge, that is, the edge waves propagate counterclockwise from the western coast of the Korean Peninsula to the northern coast of the Yellow Sea, the coast of the Bohai Sea, and the southern coast of the Yellow Sea. Using the numerical simulation results to analyze the flow rates in the southern Yellow Sea section and the Bohai Strait section, it was found that the inflow of seawater in the second stage was 66% and 75% higher than the outflow in the first stage, which explains the reason why the storm surge caused by edge waves in the second stage is large, wide-ranging and long-lasting. In addition, the contributions of edge waves and winds to the storm surge in the second stage were 94% and 6%, respectively, with edge waves playing an absolutely dominant role.

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