1971—2020年南海生成熱帶氣旋的活動(dòng)規(guī)律與大風(fēng)分布特征

作者：楊亞新

單位：江蘇航運(yùn)職業(yè)技術(shù)學(xué)院 航海技術(shù)學(xué)院, 江蘇 南通 226010

關(guān)鍵詞：南海 熱帶氣旋 活動(dòng)規(guī)律 大風(fēng)分布特征

分類號(hào)：P444

出版年·卷·期（頁(yè)碼）：2024·41·第一期（104-111）

摘要：

利用東京臺(tái)風(fēng)中心提供的1971—2020年的西北太平洋熱帶氣旋資料，對(duì)南海生成熱帶氣旋的發(fā)生頻數(shù)、發(fā)生源地、強(qiáng)度和持續(xù)時(shí)間、移動(dòng)路徑以及大風(fēng)分布特征進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。結(jié)果表明：南海熱帶氣旋主要生成于5—12月，其中6—9月為盛行期，約有70%的熱帶氣旋生成；熱帶氣旋生成位置季節(jié)變化明顯，6—9月多生成于南海北部17°N附近，11月—次年4月多生成于14°N以南的南海南部，5月和10月為季節(jié)轉(zhuǎn)換期，生成位置大幅北進(jìn)或南撤；熱帶氣旋中心最低氣壓為940～1 004 hPa，平均值為985.4 hPa，近中心最大風(fēng)速為35～85 kt，平均值為48.3 kt，平均持續(xù)天數(shù)為6.2 d；熱帶氣旋移動(dòng)路徑以西移和西北移路徑居多，各月都有發(fā)生，其次為東北移路徑，主要發(fā)生在5—6月；近90%的南海熱帶氣旋10級(jí)以上大風(fēng)以中心呈對(duì)稱分布，大風(fēng)圈平均半徑為53.2 n mile，在7級(jí)以上大風(fēng)中以中心呈對(duì)稱分布的略多于不對(duì)稱分布的，7級(jí)大風(fēng)圈的平均半徑為142.3 n mile。

Based on the data of tropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific from 1971 to 2020 provided by the Tokyo typhoon center, the occurrence frequency, origin location, intensity and duration, moving path and gale distribution characteristics of tropical cyclones generated in the South China Sea are statistically analyzed. The following main conclusions are obtained: tropical cyclones in the South China Sea mainly occur during May and December, in which June to September is the prevailing period, and the occurrence frequency in these four months accounts for about 70% of annual number. The seasonal variation of the cyclone origins is large. From June to September, cyclones originate near 17°N in the northern South China Sea on average. From November to April of the next year, cyclones originate in the southern South China Sea (south of 14°N). May and October are the seasonal transition periods, and the origin locations of cyclones shift northward or southward significantly; The minimum pressure of the cyclone center is 940～1 004 hPa with an average of 985.4 hPa, the maximum wind speed near the cyclone center is 35～85 kt with an average of 48.3 kt, and the average duration is 6.2 d; Most of the cyclones move westward and northwestward during June and December, followed by northeastward during May and June. Strong winds above force 10 associated with nearly 90% of the South China Sea tropical cyclones are symmetrically distributed with respect to the center, and the average radius of the strong wind circle is 53.2 n miles. The symmetrically distributed strong winds above force 7 are slight more than the asymmetrically distributed strong winds above force 7, and the average radius of the strong wind circle is 142.3 n miles.

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