河北省海嘯災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估和區(qū)劃研究

作者：王平1  左麗明1  孫立寧2  席明碩1  王培濤2  趙亞娟1

單位：1. 河北省水文工程地質(zhì)勘查院, 河北 石家莊 050021; 2. 國家海洋環(huán)境預(yù)報中心, 北京 100081

關(guān)鍵詞：COMCOT數(shù)值模式 海嘯災(zāi)害 危險性 脆弱性 風(fēng)險評估 河北省

分類號：P731.25

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2024·41·第一期（50-60）

摘要：

基于康奈爾多電網(wǎng)耦合海嘯模型（COMCOT）數(shù)值模式建立研究區(qū)海嘯數(shù)值模型，利用模型對6個地震海嘯源情景場進(jìn)行模擬計算，通過對各海嘯源下數(shù)值模擬結(jié)果的綜合分析，確定研究區(qū)海嘯災(zāi)害危險性分布；根據(jù)土地利用類型數(shù)據(jù)資料確定研究區(qū)承災(zāi)體脆弱性分布；通過危險性、脆弱性評估成果，綜合確定研究區(qū)海嘯災(zāi)害風(fēng)險性評估和區(qū)劃成果。結(jié)果表明：河北省遭受海嘯災(zāi)害風(fēng)險最高等級為Ⅱ級，主要分布在唐山市和秦皇島市沿海區(qū)域；滄州市沿海區(qū)域海嘯災(zāi)害風(fēng)險等級較小，為Ⅲ級和Ⅳ級。

A tsunami numerical model has been established based on the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami (COMCOT) model, and used in simulating six tsunamis. By analyzing the simulation results, hazard distribution of the tsunamis has been derived. The vulnerability distribution is determined according to the land use types. Utilizing the distributions of hazard and vulnerability, the risk assessment and zoning of tsunami disaster are generated. The results show that the highest level of tsunami disaster in Hebei Province is level Ⅱ. The coastal risk areas of level Ⅱ mainly locate in Tangshan and Qinhuangdao. The risk level of tsunami disaster in Cangzhou is relatively low with levels Ⅲ and Ⅳ.

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