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常規(guī)海浪預報定量化檢驗評估方法研究

單位：自然資源部東海預報減災中心, 上海 201306

分類號：P731.33

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2024·41·第一期（10-20）

摘要：

常規(guī)海浪預報內(nèi)容是一段文字，無法直接應用實況數(shù)據(jù)進行預報質(zhì)量的檢驗評估。在詳細調(diào)研全國海洋預報機構(gòu)發(fā)布的海浪預報產(chǎn)品的基礎上，應用東海預報減災中心預報結(jié)果和實況數(shù)據(jù)進行反復測試與驗證，制定了常規(guī)預報產(chǎn)品的處理規(guī)則，設計了檢驗評估方法；通過對存在問題的研討與論證，重點解決評估波高最小值設定、觀測點與預報海域面之間的關系、同一海域多點實況資料選取等定量化檢驗評估中的關鍵技術難點，提升了檢驗評估規(guī)則的合理性和適用性。

The content of conventional sea wave forecasts is a paragraph of text, and it is impossible to validate the forecasts using observational values. On the basis of broadly investigation of sea wave forecasting products released by national ocean prediction centers, this paper introduces a processing rule for the conventional sea wave forecasts and its verification and evaluation methods after applying test and validation repeatedly to the forecasting results against the observational values provided by the East China Sea Forecasting and Disaster Reduction Center, Ministry of Natural Resources. Through the discussion and demonstration of the existing problems, the key technical difficulties in the quantitative verification and evaluation have been settled, such as setting of the minimum sea wave height value, relationship between the observational location and the forecasting area, and selection of multi-point observational values in an area. The rationality and applicability of the verification and evaluation rules have been improved.

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