Wavewatch Ⅲ模擬和統(tǒng)計(jì)方法在最大波高預(yù)報(bào)方面的評(píng)測(cè)分析

作者：王娟娟1 2 3  侯放1 3  吳淑萍1  王久珂1 3

單位：1. 國(guó)家海洋環(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心, 北京 100081; 2. 河海大學(xué)海岸災(zāi)害及防護(hù)教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室, 江蘇 南京 210098; 3. 國(guó)家海洋環(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心 自然資源部海洋災(zāi)害預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室, 北京 100081

關(guān)鍵詞：最大波高 Wavewatch Ⅲ模型 數(shù)值模擬 統(tǒng)計(jì)關(guān)系 預(yù)報(bào)精度

分類號(hào)：P731.33

出版年·卷·期（頁(yè)碼）：2024·41·第一期（1-9）

摘要：

為了研究Wavewatch Ⅲ（WWⅢ）海浪模型對(duì)最大波高的模擬能力及其與傳統(tǒng)統(tǒng)計(jì)關(guān)系方法的差異，通過(guò)對(duì)兩次臺(tái)風(fēng)浪過(guò)程的后報(bào)模擬和半年的業(yè)務(wù)化預(yù)報(bào)，分析了WWⅢ數(shù)值模擬的準(zhǔn)確度及其與統(tǒng)計(jì)關(guān)系方法的精度差異。研究結(jié)果表明： WWⅢ數(shù)值模擬的最大波高（Hmax）的精度略低于有效波高（Hs），但也達(dá)到了24 h預(yù)報(bào)相對(duì)誤差（Hmax≥1 m）低于18%、相關(guān)系數(shù)高于0.94的水平，模擬精度可靠，可以用于業(yè)務(wù)化預(yù)報(bào)；與兩種統(tǒng)計(jì)關(guān)系方法（Hmax和Hs分別為1.42和1.52）計(jì)算的最大波高相比，數(shù)值模擬的精度總體與其相當(dāng)，但在Hmax和Hs比值大于1.65這種易出現(xiàn)危險(xiǎn)的海況下，數(shù)值模擬具有更高的準(zhǔn)確性，更適合應(yīng)用于海浪預(yù)警報(bào)服務(wù)。

In order to assess the performance of Wavewatch Ⅲ(WWⅢ) model on maximum wave height simulation and its difference from the traditional statistical relationship methods, the accuracy of WWⅢ simulation and its deviation from the statistical relationship methods are analyzed through the hindcast simulation of two typhoon wave processes and the semi-annual operational forecasts. It is found that: The accuracy of maximum wave height of WW Ⅲ simulation is slightly lower than that of significant wave height, but still reaches the conditions of the relative error of 24-hour forecast (under the condition of maximum wave height not less than 1 meter) is lower than 18%, and the correlation coefficient is higher than 0.94. The accuracy of WWⅢ simulation is reliable and can be used in operational forecasts. Compared with the maximum wave height calculated by two statistical relationship methods (the ratios of Hmax and Hs are 1.42 and 1.52), the accuracy of WWⅢ simulation is generally equivalent to them. However, when the ratio of Hmax and Hs is greater than 1.65, which indicates dangerous sea conditions, the WWⅢ simulation has better accuracy and is more suitable for the early warning of sea waves.

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