登陸華南熱帶氣旋年頻數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)

作者：張海燕1 2  胡金磊1 2  姚小娟1 2  賴(lài)志娟1 2  莊樺1 2

單位：1. 自然資源部南海預(yù)報(bào)減災(zāi)中心, 廣東 廣州 510310; 2. 自然資源部海洋環(huán)境探測(cè)技術(shù)與應(yīng)用重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室, 廣東 廣州 510310

關(guān)鍵詞：華南 登陸熱帶氣旋 多時(shí)間尺度 頻數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)

分類(lèi)號(hào)：P444

出版年·卷·期（頁(yè)碼）：2023·40·第一期（101-108）

摘要：

利用中國(guó)氣象局 39 a的熱帶氣旋資料，結(jié)合多元線(xiàn)性回歸和自回歸方法，構(gòu)建了一個(gè)考慮登陸華南熱帶氣旋年頻數(shù)多時(shí)間尺度特性的組合預(yù)測(cè)模型。該組合模型能較好地?cái)M合 1980-2012年登陸華南熱帶氣旋年頻數(shù)實(shí)況，擬合相關(guān)系數(shù)達(dá)0.93，平均絕對(duì)誤差為0.57個(gè)，平均相對(duì)誤差為 12.7%。利用該模型對(duì) 2013-2018 年進(jìn)行后報(bào)試驗(yàn)，平均絕對(duì)誤差為 0.61 個(gè)，平均相對(duì)誤差為12.4%。

Based the tropical cyclones (TCs) data over recent 39 years from the China Meteorological Administration and using the multiple linear regression and autoregressive methods, a combined prediction model considering the multi-time-scale characteristics of the annual frequency of landfall TCs in South China is constructed. The combined model can well fit the actual annual frequency of landfall TCs in South China during the period from 1980 to 2012 with the fitting correlation coefficient of 0.93, the mean absolute error of 0.57 and the mean relative error of 12.7%. The test results show that the model can reasonably predict the annual frequency of tropical cyclones landing in South China, and it can be used as a reference for corresponding forecasting operations. The mean absolute error and mean relative error of the hindcast experiments from 2013 to 2018 are 0.61 and 12.4%, respectively. These results indicate that the model could properly predict the annual frequency of landfall TCs in South China and can be operationally used as a reference.

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