臺風(fēng)“燦都”強(qiáng)度路徑及影響舟山降水成因分析

作者：徐逸雯  王倩  盧琪  孫軼

單位：舟山市氣象局, 浙江 舟山 316000

關(guān)鍵詞：臺風(fēng)“燦都” 副熱帶高壓 強(qiáng)降水 路徑偏差 強(qiáng)度變化

分類號：P444

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2023·40·第一期（91-100）

摘要：

基于歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心的 ERA5 再分析數(shù)據(jù)、浙江省自動氣象探測站數(shù)據(jù)等，對2021年14號臺風(fēng)“燦都”（Chanthu）的移動路徑和強(qiáng)度變化進(jìn)行分析，對路徑和強(qiáng)度的預(yù)報偏差機(jī)理進(jìn)行研究，初步探討其影響舟山的降水成因。結(jié)果表明：臺風(fēng)“燦都”核心區(qū)范圍小，外圍環(huán)流較為廣闊；路徑偏差主要與副熱帶高壓與大陸高壓有關(guān)，副熱帶高壓預(yù)報偏強(qiáng)，南支高壓被低估；臺風(fēng)“燦都”在東海北部海域回旋時處于高壓區(qū)的包圍中，沒有明顯的引導(dǎo)氣流；較高的海表面溫度為超強(qiáng)臺風(fēng)和強(qiáng)臺風(fēng)的維持提供了熱力條件；臺風(fēng)“燦都”在舟山的降水特征表現(xiàn)為小時雨強(qiáng)不強(qiáng)、持續(xù)時間長、累計(jì)降水量可觀。定海西南側(cè)出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)降水主要是受到山區(qū)地形影響以及水平方向風(fēng)速差。

Based on the data of ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the automatic meteorological stations in Zhejiang Province, we analyze the path and intensity of No. 14 typhoon "Chanthu" in 2021 and conduct a mechanical study of the forecast biases of its path and intensity. Moreover, the impact of typhoon "Chanthu" on the precipitation in Zhoushan is also discussed in this paper. The results show that the core area of typhoon "Chanthu" is small with broad peripheral circulation. The path deviation of typhoon "Chanthu" is mainly related to the subtropical high and continental high. The forecast of subtropical high is stronger and the southern branch of continental high is underestimated. The typhoon is surrounded by high pressure when it circles in the northern East China Sea without obvious steering flow. The higher SST provides thermal conditions for maintaining super and severe typhoon. The precipitation of typhoon “Chanthu”in Zhoushan are characterized by weak hourly precipitation intensity, long duration and considerable accumulated precipitation. The heavy rainfall in the southwest of Dinghai is mainly due to the influence of mountainous terrain and horizontal wind speed difference.

參考文獻(xiàn)：

[1] 陳聯(lián)壽. 熱帶氣象災(zāi)害及其研究進(jìn)展[J]. 氣象, 2010, 36(7):101- 110. CHEN L S. Tropical meteorological calamities and its research evalution[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2010, 36(7):101-110. [2] 康斌. 我國臺風(fēng)災(zāi)害統(tǒng)計(jì)分析[J]. 中國防汛抗旱, 2016, 26(2):36- 40. KANG B. Statistical analysis of typhoon disasters in China[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2016, 26(2):36-40. [3] 周兵, 徐海明, 譚言科, 等. 1998年武漢大暴雨過程的切變渦度及非絕熱加熱垂直結(jié)構(gòu)分析[J]. 氣象學(xué)報, 2001, 59(6):707- 718. ZHOU B, XU H M, TAN Y K, et al. Research on vertical section of shear vorticity and diabatic heating with Wuhan torrential rain in 1998[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2001, 59(6):707-718. [4] 陳汶江, 王偉. 2016年14號臺風(fēng)"莫蘭蒂"特征分析[J]. 成都信息工程大學(xué)學(xué)報, 2019, 34(4):435-442. CHEN W J, WANG W. Analysis on the characteristics of the fourteenth typhoon"Morandi"in 2016[J]. Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology, 2019, 34(4):435-442. [5] 趙玉春, 王葉紅, 陳健康, 等."莫蘭蒂"臺風(fēng)(2016)登陸前后精細(xì)結(jié)構(gòu)及其引發(fā)福建特大暴雨的模擬研究[J]. 暴雨災(zāi)害, 2018, 37(2):135-148. ZHAO Y C, WANG Y H, CHEN J K, et al. Numerical investigation on detailed structure of Typhoon"Meranti"(2016) and extreme heavy rainfall event induced by it before and after landfall in Fujian[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2018, 37(2):135-148. [6] 漆梁波, 曹曉崗. 雙臺風(fēng)形勢下上海地區(qū)一次暴雨過程的預(yù)報分析和對比[J]. 熱帶氣象學(xué)報, 2013, 29(2):177-188. QI L B, CAO X G. Analysis and comparison of forecasting of a heavy rainfall event in Shanghai under twin typhoons situation[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2013, 29(2):177-188. [7] 曹曉崗, 王慧, 漆梁波. 臺風(fēng)與冷空氣對"13. 10"上海特大暴雨過程的影響分析[J]. 暴雨災(zāi)害, 2014, 33(4):351-362. CAO X G, WANG H, QI L B. The combined effects of typhoon Fitow and Danas together with cool air on an excessive heavy rain from October 7 to 8 in 2013 in Shanghai[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2014, 33(4):351-362. [8] 包澄瀾, 阮均石, 朱躍建. 雙臺風(fēng)互旋與引導(dǎo)氣流關(guān)系的研究[J]. 海洋學(xué)報, 1985, 7(6):696-705. BAO C L, RUAN J S, ZHU Y J. Research on the relationship between the mutual rotation of two typhoons and the steering flow[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 1985, 7(6):696-705. [9] 劉曉波, 儲海. 雙臺風(fēng)形勢下長三角地區(qū)一次大暴雨過程的成因分析[J]. 暴雨災(zāi)害, 2019, 38(2):97-106. LIU X B, CHU H. Cause analysis of an extremely heavy rainfall event under binary typhoons pattern in Yangtze River delta[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2019, 38(2):97-106. [10] XU X D, LU C, XU H X, et al. A possible mechanism responsible for exceptional rainfall over Taiwan from Typhoon Morakot[J]. Atmospheric Science Letters, 2011, 12(3):294-299. [11] 謝政標(biāo), 熊志剛, 林立進(jìn), 等. 臺風(fēng)"莫蘭蒂"結(jié)構(gòu)變化對粵東風(fēng)雨的影響分析[J]. 廣東水利水電, 2019(11):29-33, 38. XIE Z B, XIONG Z G, LIN L J, et al. Analysis of the impact of typhoon Morandi structure change on the wind and rain in East Guangdong[J]. Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower, 2019(11):29-33, 38.

服務(wù)與反饋：

【文章下載】【發(fā)表評論】【查看評論】【加入收藏】