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基于海嘯單位源數(shù)據(jù)庫的南中國海區(qū)域海嘯數(shù)值預報方法

作者：李宏偉¹ 2 3 孫立寧¹ 2 王宗辰¹ 2 徐志國¹ 2 3 王培濤¹ 2 3 史健宇¹ 2

單位：1. 國家海洋環(huán)境預報中心, 北京 100081;
2. 自然資源部海嘯預警中心, 北京 100081;
3. 國家海洋環(huán)境預報中心自然資源部海洋災害預報技術(shù)重點實驗室, 北京 100081

分類號：P731.36

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2023·40·第一期（21-27）

摘要：

基于全球俯沖帶板片模型Slab 2.0將馬尼拉海溝劃分為80個海嘯單位源，構(gòu)建了海嘯單位源數(shù)據(jù)庫，建立了基于單位源數(shù)據(jù)庫方法預報海嘯的業(yè)務(wù)化流程。經(jīng)過與現(xiàn)有海嘯數(shù)值模型計算結(jié)果的比對，單位源數(shù)據(jù)庫預報的最大海嘯波幅平均預報一致性可以達到88%，能夠滿足業(yè)務(wù)化需求。

In order to improve the tsunami early warning capability in this region, we decompose Manila Trench into 80 tsunami unit sources based on the subduction zone geometry model（Slab 2.0）, and construct a tsunami unit source database. Meanwhile, we also establish an operational procedure for tsunami forecast based on the unit source database. By comparing with the results of existing tsunami numerical model, the average forecast consistency of the maximum tsunami amplitude computed by unit source database can reach 88%, which meets the operational needs of tsunami warning.

參考文獻：

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