基于多源數(shù)據(jù)的長(zhǎng)江口概率風(fēng)暴潮預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)

作者：宋國(guó)煜1  郭文云1  葛建忠2  張洪生1  裘誠(chéng)3  李鋮3  張俞4

單位：1. 上海海事大學(xué)海洋科學(xué)與工程學(xué)院, 上海 201300; 2. 華東師范大學(xué)河口海岸學(xué)國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室, 上海 200062; 3. 上海市海洋監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)中心, 上海 200062; 4. 河海大學(xué)港口海岸與近海工程學(xué)院, 江蘇 南京 210024

關(guān)鍵詞：風(fēng)暴潮 集合預(yù)報(bào) 概率預(yù)報(bào) FVCOM

分類號(hào)：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（頁(yè)碼）：2023·40·第一期（10-20）

摘要：

將6個(gè)氣象預(yù)報(bào)機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)西北太平洋一帶臺(tái)風(fēng)的預(yù)報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)合并為一個(gè)分析數(shù)據(jù)。根據(jù)分析數(shù)據(jù)，共得到 45個(gè)臺(tái)風(fēng)樣本（5條臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑、3個(gè)臺(tái)風(fēng)最大風(fēng)速和 3個(gè)臺(tái)風(fēng)中心氣壓），基于 WRF和FVCOM 模型建立了一套適用于長(zhǎng)江口及附近海域的風(fēng)暴潮預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)，以熱帶氣旋“利奇馬”（201909）為例，利用該預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了模擬預(yù)報(bào)，實(shí)現(xiàn)了風(fēng)暴潮的集合預(yù)報(bào)和概率預(yù)報(bào)。結(jié)果表明，該系統(tǒng)對(duì)增水具有較好的預(yù)測(cè)精度，可提供各增水場(chǎng)的發(fā)生概率。

The typhoon forecast data of six meteorological forecasting agencies for the northwest Pacific Ocean are selected and combined into one analysis data, based on which a total of 45 typhoon samples are derived including 5 tracks, 3 maximum wind speeds and 3 central air pressures. A storm surge prediction system for the Changjiang Estuary and its offshore areas is established by using the WRF and FVCOM models. The system is used to simulate the storm surge along the Changjiang Estuary caused by the tropical cyclone "Lekima" (201909), and the ensemble forecast and probability prediction of storm surge are realized. The results show that the system has a good prediction accuracy for storm surge, and can provide the occurrence probability for each surge field.

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