夏季黃海中北部孤立氣旋對(duì)渤海風(fēng)暴潮影響模擬研究

作者：梁森棟1 2  傅賜福1 2

單位：1. 國(guó)家海洋環(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心, 北京 100081; 2. 國(guó)家海洋環(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心 自然資源部海洋災(zāi)害預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室, 北京 100081

關(guān)鍵詞：風(fēng)暴潮 孤立氣旋 渤海 黃海 數(shù)值模擬

分類(lèi)號(hào)：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（頁(yè)碼）：2023·40·第一期（1-9）

摘要：

應(yīng)用經(jīng)驗(yàn)風(fēng)場(chǎng)模型刻畫(huà)夏季黃海中北部孤立氣旋的風(fēng)場(chǎng)，利用數(shù)值模擬開(kāi)展孤立氣旋強(qiáng)度和移動(dòng)路徑對(duì)渤海內(nèi)風(fēng)暴潮的定量影響研究。結(jié)果表明：受黃海中北部孤立氣旋的影響，渤海中3個(gè)海灣的最大風(fēng)暴潮分別發(fā)生在各灣頂附近的葫蘆島站、黃驊站和濰坊站，渤海海峽內(nèi)最大風(fēng)暴潮對(duì)氣旋路徑的敏感性較小。渤海沿岸潛在最大風(fēng)暴潮與黃海中北部孤立氣旋強(qiáng)度存在冪指數(shù)相關(guān)關(guān)系S =Ṽm2.391。初步分析得出造成渤海內(nèi)海灣和海峽較大風(fēng)暴潮的孤立氣旋的移動(dòng)關(guān)鍵區(qū)域分別為威海市東南附近海域、煙臺(tái)市東部及威海市北部沿海海域、煙臺(tái)市東部沿海海域、青島市東部-威海市南部沿海海域。

In this paper, the empirical wind field model is applied to describe the solitary cyclones in the central and northern Yellow Sea in summer, and the numerical simulation is used to carry out a quantitative study on the impact of the solitary cyclones' intensity and tracks on the storm surge in the Bohai Sea. The results show that due to the solitary cyclones in the central and northern Yellow Sea, the largest storm surge in the three bays of the Bohai Sea occurs near Huludao, Huanghua and Weifang stations respectively, and the largest storm surge in the Bohai Strait is less sensitive to the cyclone tracks. A power exponential function is found to represent the potential maximum storm surge in the Bohai Sea due to the solitary cyclones in the central and northern Yellow Sea: S =Ṽm2.391. It is preliminarily analyzed that the key areas of solitary cyclone tracks that cause large storm surges in the Bohai Sea are the waters near the southeast of Weihai City, the eastern coastal waters of Yantai City and the northern coastal waters of Weihai City, the eastern coastal waters of Yantai City, and the coastal waters from eastern part of Qingdao City to the southern part of Weihai City.

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