FY-2G云導(dǎo)風(fēng)資料同化在臺(tái)風(fēng)“天鴿”數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)中的應(yīng)用

作者：許冬梅1 2 3  束艾青1  李泓4  吳海英5  何志新6  沈菲菲1 2 4  莊雨馨1

單位：1. 南京信息工程大學(xué)氣象災(zāi)害教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室/氣候與環(huán)境變化國際合作聯(lián)合實(shí)驗(yàn)室/氣象災(zāi)害預(yù)報(bào)預(yù)警與評估協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心, 江蘇 南京 210044; 2. 高原與盆地暴雨旱澇災(zāi)害四川省重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室, 四川 成都 610225; 3. 中國氣象局沈陽大氣環(huán)境研究所, 遼寧 沈陽 110000; 4.

關(guān)鍵詞：FY-2G云導(dǎo)風(fēng) WRF模式 3DVAR 數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)

分類號：P457.8

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2022·39·第一期（56-66）

摘要：

以2017年8月登陸我國的13號臺(tái)風(fēng)"天鴿"為個(gè)例，采用美國全球預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)資料作為背景場，利用WRF中尺度數(shù)值模式及天氣研究和預(yù)報(bào)模式同化系統(tǒng)中的三維變分模塊，探究了新一代靜止衛(wèi)星FY-2G云導(dǎo)風(fēng)資料同化對臺(tái)風(fēng)預(yù)報(bào)的影響。研究結(jié)果表明：云導(dǎo)風(fēng)資料同化模擬的臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑、強(qiáng)度和最大風(fēng)速與實(shí)況更加接近。與控制試驗(yàn)相比，云導(dǎo)風(fēng)資料同化能夠?yàn)楸尘皥鎏峁┴S富的風(fēng)矢量信息，增強(qiáng)臺(tái)風(fēng)周圍對流云及其引導(dǎo)氣流的強(qiáng)度，從而較好地模擬臺(tái)風(fēng)的內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)，對影響其發(fā)展和維持的水汽條件與動(dòng)力條件進(jìn)行改進(jìn)。

In order to explore the influence of FY-2G AMVs data assimilation on typhoon forecast, FY-2G AMVs data assimilation and numerical simulation experiments are conducted in this paper by taking typhoon Hato (No.1713) as an example that landed in China in August 2017. The Global Forecasting System data are used as background, and the mesoscale numerical model and data assimilation method are the WRF and 3DVAR data assimilation module of the Weather Research and Forecasting model Data Assimilation system, respectively. The results show that the typhoon track, intensity, and maximum wind speed simulated with AMVs data assimilation match better with the observation. Compared with the control experiment, AMVs data assimilation can provide abundant wind vector information in the background field and enhance the strength of convective clouds around the typhoon and its steering flow. Therefore, the internal structure of typhoon can be well simulated, and the water vapor condition and dynamic condition that affect the development and maintenance of the typhoon can be improved.

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