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大連地區(qū)ECMWF細網格風向與實況的對比檢驗

單位：1. 大連市氣象服務中心, 遼寧大連 116001;
2. 大連市旅順口區(qū)氣象局, 遼寧大連 116041;
3. 空軍航空大學, 遼寧錦州 121000

分類號：P732.1

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2022·39·第一期（21-31）

摘要：

選取2016年1月-2018年12月ECMWF細網格10 m風資料，與大連地區(qū)8個國家氣象觀測站地面5類實況風向資料進行對比分析。結果表明：5類實況風向平均誤差（ME）相差不大，平均絕對誤差（MAE）隨著預報時限延長均呈增大趨勢，正點最大風MAE最小且各時限r均最大，綜合來看EC 10 m風向預報與正點最大風最為接近。統(tǒng)計分析EC 10 m風與大連地區(qū)正點最大風向的ME和MAE，表明EC風向預報的ME均在0.1°~6°間，預報略偏向實況風的來向左側，各時限MAE則均在36°以上。風向誤差在不同風向、風級和站點中均差異明顯，東風誤差最大，當實況風力小于4級時，各時限ME均為正差，風級越小正差越大，4級及以上均為負差，風級越大越向負值偏離，風級越大MAE越小。ME在不同風級和風向上均存在明顯的日變化。夜間誤差整體大于白天，17-20時是全天誤差最小的時段。對比08時和20時兩個起報時次的風向ME、MAE與RMSE，總體來看08時各時限的預報風向略好于20時。

The five categories of wind direction data of eight national meteorological observation stations in Dalian area is compared with the 10-m fine-grid wind data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF or EC) from January 2016 to December 2018. The results show that the mean error (ME) of the five categories of actual wind directions is not much different, while the mean absolute error (MAE) tends to increase with the extension of the forecast time. For the punctual maximum wind of all the analysis and forecast time, MAE is the smallest and the r is the largest. Therefore, the EC 10-m wind direction forecast is the closest to the punctual maximum wind. Through statistical analysis of the ME and MAE between the EC 10-m wind and the actual punctual maximum wind direction in Dalian, it can be concluded that the ME of EC wind direction forecast is between 0.1° and 6° with a slightly bias to the left of the actual wind, and the MAE for all the analysis and forecast time is above 36°. The wind direction error varies significantly with wind directions, wind scales and stations, and the east wind shows the largest error. The ME is positive at all times when the actual scale of wind force is less than 4, and the smaller the wind scale is, the greater the positive ME will be. The ME is negative at all times when the actual scale of wind force is equal to or above 4, and the greater the wind scale is, the more negative it deviates and the smaller the MAE will be. The ME shows significant diurnal variations in different wind scales and directions. The ME at night is larger than that during the day with the smallest error between 17:00-20:00. Comparing the wind direction ME, MAE and Root Mean Square Error for the forecasts with the starting time of 08:00 and 20:00, it is found that the forecast wind direction at 08:00 is better than that at 20:00 in general.

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