基于多源數(shù)據(jù)的臺(tái)風(fēng)風(fēng)暴潮概率預(yù)報(bào)研究：臺(tái)風(fēng)集合的構(gòu)建

作者：郭文云1  安佰超2  裘誠(chéng)2  李鋮2  李丕學(xué)2  葛建忠3  丁平興3

單位：1. 上海海事大學(xué)海洋科學(xué)與工程學(xué)院, 上海 201300; 2. 上海市海洋監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)中心, 上海 200062; 3. 華東師范大學(xué)河口海岸學(xué)國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室, 上海 200062

關(guān)鍵詞：集合預(yù)報(bào) 臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑 最大風(fēng)速 概率圓 誤差分析

分類號(hào)：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2021·38·第一期（26-33）

摘要：

建立了一套用于臺(tái)風(fēng)風(fēng)暴潮集合預(yù)報(bào)的臺(tái)風(fēng)集合構(gòu)建方案。首先基于中國(guó)中央氣象臺(tái)、中國(guó)香港天文臺(tái)、中國(guó)臺(tái)灣中央氣象局、美國(guó)聯(lián)合臺(tái)風(fēng)預(yù)警中心、日本氣象廳和韓國(guó)氣象臺(tái)6家預(yù)報(bào)中心的預(yù)報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)，構(gòu)建一個(gè)誤差更小的24 h、48 h和72 h預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效的臺(tái)風(fēng)分析數(shù)據(jù)；然后基于分析數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建9個(gè)路徑樣本（1條分析路徑+2個(gè)概率圓上的8條概率路徑）和3個(gè)臺(tái)風(fēng)最大風(fēng)速（概率偏弱、居中和偏強(qiáng)）樣本，形成27個(gè)臺(tái)風(fēng)樣本集合，并根據(jù)分析風(fēng)場(chǎng)的誤差分布合理確定不同臺(tái)風(fēng)樣本的發(fā)生概率。通過對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)“利奇馬”的應(yīng)用，證實(shí)該集合方案可以覆蓋大部分可能的情景，集合樣本具有較強(qiáng)的代表性，可用于臺(tái)風(fēng)風(fēng)暴潮的集合預(yù)報(bào)。

This study establishes a scheme for creating a typhoon ensembles that is used in storm surge probabilistic forecast. Based on the forecast products of the China Meteorological Administration, Hong Kong Observatory, Central Weather Bureau, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Japan Meteorological Administration and Korea Meteorological Administration, a typhoon analysis dataset with higher accuracy for the 24-hours, 48-hours and 72-hours forecast is created. The dataset is used to generate 9 members for track (1 analysis track and 8 probabilistic track on the probability circle) and 3 members for typhoon maximum wind speed (weak, medium and strong probability), which results in 27 typhoon ensemble members. Meanwhile, the probability of each ensemble members is determined based on the error distribution of the typhoon analysis dataset. The scheme is validated by typhoon "Lekima". The results show that the scheme includes most possible scenarios and the representativeness of the ensemble members are significant, which approves the applicability of the scheme in typhoon storm surge probabilistic forecast.

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