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2019年11月西北太平洋熱帶氣旋生成頻數(shù)異常偏多的成因分析

單位：國家海洋環(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心, 北京 100181

分類號：P444

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2021·38·第一期（18-25）

摘要：

基于1979—2019年NCEP-DOE再分析資料、中國氣象局發(fā)布的熱帶氣旋（TC）最佳路徑數(shù)據(jù)集和HadISST全球海溫資料等，研究了2019年11月西北太平洋TC生成頻數(shù)異常偏多的可能原因。結(jié)果表明： 2019年11月西太平洋副熱帶高壓（WPSH）強(qiáng)度偏強(qiáng)、脊線偏北，其南側(cè)偏東氣流與越赤道氣流交匯形成的西北太平洋熱帶輻合帶偏強(qiáng)偏北、向東延伸，為TC生成創(chuàng)造了低層強(qiáng)的輻合、高層強(qiáng)的輻散、小的風(fēng)速垂直切變以及對流層中層充足的水汽等有利的大尺度環(huán)境條件，導(dǎo)致TC生成頻次異常偏多、生成位置偏北偏東。采用EOF方法進(jìn)行分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)11月東亞大槽年際變化的第二模態(tài)為南北反位相型分布，對應(yīng)的第二特征向量（PC2）與WPSH脊線指數(shù)具有高度一致性，且與同期西北太平洋上空TC生成頻數(shù)呈顯著的正相關(guān)關(guān)系。即當(dāng)11月東亞大槽北部加深而南部變淺時，對應(yīng)WPSH脊線偏北，TC生成頻數(shù)偏多，表明深秋季節(jié)西風(fēng)帶槽脊活動對西北太平洋TC生成有一定的調(diào)制作用。進(jìn)一步的診斷分析揭示了北太平洋海溫異常可能是造成東亞大槽經(jīng)向偶極子型變異的重要因子。

Based on the tropical cyclone (TC) data from CMA, NCEP-DOE reanalysis and HadISST datasets, this study investigates the possible reason for the above-normal tropical cyclogenesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in November 2019. The intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is found to be much stronger with the ridge line shifting northward in November 2019. The related WNP monsoon trough tends to be intensified, move northward and extend eastward, accompanied by the enhanced lower-level convergence, stronger upper-level divergence, weaker vertical zonal wind shear and a positive mid-level relative humidity anomaly in the tropical western-central Pacific, which favors the increased tropical cyclogenesis frequency in the WNP. The EOF analysis reveals that the second mode of the annual variations of East Asian trough (EAT) is a meridional dipole distribution. The corresponding second eigenvectors are in high consistency with the WPSH ridge index and in significantly positive correlation with the TC genesis frequency during November of 1979-2019, suggesting the modulation effect of the extra-tropical circulation on the WNP TC genesis. Further examinations indicate that the meridional dipole pattern of the EAT may be attributed to the anomalous SST over the North Pacific.

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