ERA-Interim和NCEP/NCAR再分析資料在我國東南近海適用性分析

作者：申華羽1  呂勁文1  涂小萍2  方艷瑩1

單位：1. 寧波市氣象服務(wù)中心, 浙江 寧波 315012; 2. 寧波市氣象臺, 浙江 寧波 315012

關(guān)鍵詞：再分析資料 浮標站 東南近海 評估

分類號：P732

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2019·36·第二期（9-20）

摘要：

利用我國東南近海5個浮標站觀測資料，對2012-2016年ERA-Interim和NCEP/NCAR再分析資料10 m風、2 m氣溫、海平面氣壓的適用性進行了評估。結(jié)果表明：NCEP/NCAR的再分析10 m風適用性更好，ERA-Interim的2 m氣溫適用性更好，海平面氣壓兩者差異不大。風速再分析值與觀測值具有較好的一致性，相關(guān)系數(shù)達0.8~0.9，但再分析風速總體上有偏小的趨勢，平均偏差在-1.3~0 m/s之間，均方根誤差在1.5~3 m/s。再分析資料的平均風向有順時針偏差的趨勢，溫州浮標偏右達14°以上，均方根誤差大多在40°~50°。不管風速還是風向，5個浮標站中均以舟山浮標的再分析值與觀測值最為接近；分析還表明，再分析資料的冬季風代表性相對較差，這是造成風速和風向系統(tǒng)性偏差的主要原因。再分析資料與觀測2 m氣溫相關(guān)系數(shù)均在0.95以上，且有偏高的趨勢，NCEP偏高更為明顯，有4個浮標站平均偏差達1~2℃，而ERA-I僅1個浮標站偏差1~2℃，4個在1℃以內(nèi)。春季和冬季氣溫偏高最為明顯，春季升溫過程存在異常偏高的可能，秋季氣溫與觀測值最為接近。海平面氣壓適用性較好，總體優(yōu)于10 m風和2 m氣溫，且季節(jié)間差異也不大。

The applicability of 10 m wind, 2 m temperature, and sea level pressure of ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets from 2012 to 2016 is evaluated based on observations of five buoys in the adjacent waters of the southeast China sea. The results show that the NCEP/NCAR 10 m wind and ERA-Interim 2 m temperature reveal better applicability, while the sea level temperature of the two datasets shows similar statistical error. The two reanalysis datasets shows good consistency with buoy observations in 10m wind speed with a correlation coefficients between 0.8 and 0.9. However, the value of reanalysis is slightly underestimated compared to buoy observations with a bias below 1.3 0 m/s and a root mean square errors (RMSE) of 1.5~3 m/s. The wind direction of reanalysis has a bias tendency toward the right, which reaches 14℃ with RMSE between 40 and 50° in Wenzhou buoy station. Among the five buoy stations, Zhoushan buoy reveals best consistency with the reanalysis datasets in terms of both wind speed and wind direction. We also find that the wind of reanalysis datasets are least accurate in winter, which causes the systematic bias of wind speed and wind direction. The correlation coefficients of 2 m temperature between the two reanalysis datasets and observations are both above 0.95. Nevertheless, the reanalysis temperature tend to be higher than observations. Especially, the deviation of NCEP/NCAR temperature in four buoy stations is 1~2℃ on average, The reanalysis 2 m temperature shows best applicability in autumn, while it is most significantly higher in spring and winter.. Sea level pressure of the two reanalysis datasets reveals better applicability with little seasonal difference.

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