中尺度渦業(yè)務(wù)化檢驗(yàn)方法探討

作者：匡曉迪  李競(jìng)時(shí)  李云

單位：國(guó)家海洋環(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心, 北京 100081

關(guān)鍵詞：中尺度渦 匹配檢驗(yàn) 業(yè)務(wù)化預(yù)報(bào) 檢驗(yàn)方法

分類(lèi)號(hào)：P731.2

出版年·卷·期（頁(yè)碼）：2019·36·第二期（1-8）

摘要：

結(jié)合業(yè)務(wù)化海洋預(yù)報(bào)的實(shí)際需求，探討了一種新的中尺度渦檢驗(yàn)方法——匹配檢驗(yàn)方法，并以此為基礎(chǔ)提出了中尺度渦的檢驗(yàn)評(píng)分方案。業(yè)務(wù)化預(yù)報(bào)檢驗(yàn)，是開(kāi)展中尺度渦業(yè)務(wù)化預(yù)報(bào)必要組成部分，本文提出的技巧評(píng)分方案，能夠更客觀地表述模式模擬或預(yù)報(bào)的中尺度渦的準(zhǔn)確預(yù)報(bào)、空?qǐng)?bào)和漏報(bào)，更好地掌握預(yù)報(bào)的質(zhì)量和表現(xiàn)，為中尺度渦業(yè)務(wù)化預(yù)報(bào)提供更符合業(yè)務(wù)化實(shí)際的檢驗(yàn)方案和方法指導(dǎo)。

Aiming for the need of operational ocean forecasting, a new mesoscale eddy verification method named matching verification is discussed, based on which a scoring scheme for mesoscale eddy verification is proposed in this paper. Verification is an essential component of the mesoscale eddy operational forecasting. The proposed scoring scheme subjectively describes the accuracy in modeling or forecasting mesoscale eddies, which is helpful in monitoring the quality and performance of the forecast. The scheme provides a verification approach and method guidance for the operational forecasting of mesoscale eddies in practice.

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