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耦合模式中海浪參數(shù)對臺風浪預報的影響研究

單位：1. 95171部隊氣象臺, 廣東廣州 510000;
2. 空軍研究院, 北京 100085;
3. 61741部隊, 北京 100094;
4. 75839部隊, 廣東廣州 510000;
5. 61255部隊氣象臺, 山西侯馬 043000;
6. 武警第二機動總隊直升機支隊湘陰場站, 湖南長沙 410200

關鍵詞：中尺度海氣浪耦合模式臺風浪海浪參數(shù)化

分類號：P731.33

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2019·36·第一期（37-51）

摘要：

以西北太平洋一次“雙臺風”共同影響下的臺風浪為例，針對模式中風攝入和白帽耗散、底摩擦、波破碎、波-波非線性相互作用等海浪物理過程對臺風浪預報的影響進行了敏感性試驗分析。在此基礎上，基于各物理過程最優(yōu)參數(shù)化方案探討了耦合模式和單獨海浪模式的海浪預報性能，分析了耦合模式的海浪預報場分布特征。結果表明：不同海浪物理過程參數(shù)化對于波高預報的準確性是有所差異的。在相對最優(yōu)的海浪各參數(shù)化方案組合下，無論耦合模式還是單獨海浪模式都能較好地反映波高的變化和分布趨勢。相比而言，耦合模式對于臺風浪大值區(qū)的浪高預報要比單獨海浪模式的更接近觀測，且可以很好地刻畫出雙臺風影響下浪的分布演變特征，對于西太平洋臺風浪的預報具有很好的適用性。

Based on the simulation of binary typhoons over the northwestern Pacific Ocean, a serie of sensitivity experiments are conducted to study the parametric effects of wave physical processes on typhoon wave forecast, such as wind energy input, white capping, bottom friction, depth-induced wave breaking, and nonlinear wave interactions. We also discuss the forecast skill of coupled model and individual wave model based on optimal parameterization scheme of each process, and analyze the characteristics of ocean wave in coupled model. It is shown that the accuracy of wave height forecast varies among the parameterization of different wave physical processes. Both coupled model and individual wave model can reasonably depict the wave height variation and distribution under a combination of the relatively optimal wave parameterization schemes. It is found that the coupled mode can better characterize the distribution and evolution of binary typhoon wave, and predict the wave height with more accuracy over the high wave areas of binary typhoons compared to individual wave model. The study demonstrates good applicability of coupled model in forecasting typhoon wave over the northwestern Pacific Ocean.

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