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基于概率估算的南海中尺度渦強(qiáng)度定級(jí)方法

單位：1. 國(guó)家海洋環(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心, 北京 100081;
2. 海軍海洋水文氣象預(yù)報(bào)中心, 北京 100161

關(guān)鍵詞：中尺度渦強(qiáng)度強(qiáng)度分級(jí)標(biāo)準(zhǔn) 概率估算三參數(shù)威布爾分布

分類號(hào)：P731.2

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2018·35·第一期（60-63）

摘要：

根據(jù)預(yù)報(bào)工作的實(shí)際，選用中尺度渦振幅作為強(qiáng)度指標(biāo)，首先用概率大小定義強(qiáng)度等級(jí)，然后將強(qiáng)度等級(jí)和衡量中尺度渦的強(qiáng)度量值——振幅的大小一一對(duì)應(yīng)，給出中尺度渦強(qiáng)度分級(jí)方案的同時(shí)，提出了以風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估為基本思路，以概率分布為主要工具的強(qiáng)度定級(jí)新方法。這一方法取代純經(jīng)驗(yàn)的指標(biāo)設(shè)置，提供一種新的有依據(jù)的定級(jí)方法。基于實(shí)際工作需求，使用概率閾值21\15\10 cm定義中尺度渦強(qiáng)度等級(jí)，將中尺度渦強(qiáng)度分為4級(jí)。

A new method is developed with amplitude used as an index to categorize the intensity of meso-scale eddies to improve the forecasting description. Instead of empirical subjectivity, this method is based on risk assessment and probability distribution. Based on the practical need, the intensity of meso-scale eddies is categorized into 4 levels utilizing the threshold of 21/15/10 cm.

參考文獻(xiàn)：

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