氣旋引發(fā)渤海異常增水特征研究

作者：傅賜福1  于福江1 2  吳少華1 2  董劍希1 2

單位：1. 國家海洋環(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心, 北京 100081; 2. 國家海洋局海洋災(zāi)害預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)研究重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室, 北京 100081

關(guān)鍵詞：氣旋 異常增水 開爾文波 渤海

分類號：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（頁碼）：2018·35·第一期（37-43）

摘要：

分析了渤海兩次由不同強(qiáng)度氣旋引發(fā)的異常增水過程，分析結(jié)果表明：當(dāng)氣旋強(qiáng)度強(qiáng)，影響時(shí)間長，則存在若干周期的異常震蕩增水，位于灣底的潮位站各周期最大增水呈現(xiàn)“跳繩”形態(tài)；反之則可能在一個(gè)周期內(nèi)，異常增水波便消散。建立渤海異常增水模型，推導(dǎo)增水波傳播速度，即為開爾文波的形式。兩次過程增水理論與實(shí)際傳播時(shí)間平均誤差為1.0 h和0.75 h，說明渤海異常增水波傳播符合開爾文波特征。根據(jù)氣旋強(qiáng)度和遼東灣各站的風(fēng)暴潮情況，按照各站間的理論傳播時(shí)間特征可以有效解決和提高此類風(fēng)暴潮過程的漏報(bào)錯(cuò)報(bào)情況。

Abnormal storm surge caused by two cyclones under different intensity was analyzed in the paper. The results showed that under high intensity and long-term influence of cyclone, there would be several cycles of abnormal storm surge, and the peak storm surge of tidal gauges which located at the bottom of the Bay in each cycle presented a "Jump rope" shape. The abnormal storm surge would bedisappeared in a cycle. The model of abnormal storm surge in the Bohai sea was established, and the wave propagation velocity was deduced, that was Kelvin wave form. The average errors of the two cyclone processes compared with the observations were 1.0 and 0.75 hour respectively, which indicated that the abnormal increase wave propagation characteristic accorded with Kelvin wave in the Bohai Sea. According to the cyclone intensity, the storm surge at Liaodong Bay tidal gauges and the theoretical propagation time between the tidal gauges, it could effectively solve and improve the storm surge forecasting.

參考文獻(xiàn)：

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