微波溫濕遙感資料在臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑模擬中的同化試驗(yàn)

作者：王業(yè)桂  張斌  蔡其發(fā)  黃勇  蘭偉仁

單位：中國(guó)人民解放軍 61741部隊(duì), 北京 100029

關(guān)鍵詞：臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑 數(shù)值模擬 同化 AMSU-A MHS 增量場(chǎng)

分類號(hào)：P444

出版年·卷·期（頁(yè)碼）：2018·35·第一期（1-11）

摘要：

基于WRF模式及其3DVar同化系統(tǒng)，針對(duì)1513號(hào)超強(qiáng)臺(tái)風(fēng)“蘇迪羅”，對(duì)NOAA衛(wèi)星中探測(cè)大氣溫度的AMSU-A資料和探測(cè)大氣濕度的MHS資料進(jìn)行同化，考察同化不同類型微波遙感資料對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑模擬的影響，結(jié)果表明：同化AMSU-A資料對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑模擬的改善要大于MHS資料，相對(duì)于控制試驗(yàn)，同化AMSU-A資料在預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)間段內(nèi)將臺(tái)風(fēng)平均路徑誤差最多降低了49 km，而同化MHS資料則最多降低了29 km；組合同化AMSU-A和MHS資料并沒有進(jìn)一步提高臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑模擬結(jié)果，這說明同化更多的資料量不一定能進(jìn)一步改善臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑的預(yù)報(bào)；同化AMSU-A資料對(duì)初始場(chǎng)的調(diào)整強(qiáng)度和范圍大于MHS資料，但經(jīng)過模式一段時(shí)間的積分，同化兩類資料對(duì)物理場(chǎng)的調(diào)整強(qiáng)度接近；同化兩類資料對(duì)物理場(chǎng)的調(diào)整與其對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑模擬的調(diào)整有著較好的對(duì)應(yīng)。

Based on the WRF model and 3DVar assimilation method, the AMSU-A data for atmospheric temperature detection and MHS data for atmospheric temperature humidity of NOAA satellites were assimilated in the event of the super typhoon "soudelor"(Number 13, 2015), which aims to investigate the effects of assimilating different remote sensing data on typhoon track's simulation. The results demonstrated, the improvement of typhoon track simulation accuracy after assimilating AMSU-A data is larger than that after assimilating MHS data. Under different control experiments, the average track error of typhoon is decreased by 49km at most by assimilating AMSU-A data, while the average track error of typhoon is decreased by 29km at most by assimilating MHS data. the effectiveness of assimilating a combined data set include AMSU-A and MHS data on the improvement of the typhoon track was not better than that of assimilating separate data.. The intensity and range of adjustment on the initial field by assimilating AMSU-A data is larger than that by assimilating MHS data. After the model's integration for a period of time, the adjustment intensity on the physical field by assimilating two types of data became closer. The adjustment of the physical field by assimilating microwave remote sensing data well correspond to the adjustment on the typhoon track's simulation.

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