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一次冬季浙北入海雷暴天氣診斷模擬分析

單位：1. 江蘇省氣象臺(tái), 江蘇南京 210019;
2 中國(guó)氣象局交通氣象重點(diǎn)開(kāi)放實(shí)驗(yàn)室, 江蘇南京 210019;
3. 南京信息工程大學(xué), 江蘇南京 210044;
4. 北京華云通合科技發(fā)展有限公司, 北京 100081

關(guān)鍵詞：雷暴 WRF-ARW模式熱力差異地形

分類(lèi)號(hào)：P732

出版年·卷·期（頁(yè)碼）：2025·42·第四期（85-93）

摘要：

利用多普勒天氣雷達(dá)資料、地面觀測(cè)和區(qū)域自動(dòng)站資料、探空資料、ERA5逐小時(shí)再分析資料（水平分辨率0.25°×0.25°）以及WRF-ARW數(shù)值模式，對(duì)2019年2月26日發(fā)生在浙北沿海的一次冬季雷暴過(guò)程進(jìn)行了分析。結(jié)果表明：此次雷暴過(guò)程受地面的冷高壓和中低層的暖濕氣流共同影響，近地面層有明顯的冷墊，層結(jié)較為穩(wěn)定，以下沉運(yùn)動(dòng)為主；而中低層存在逆溫層結(jié)，有較好的動(dòng)力和水汽條件，以上升運(yùn)動(dòng)為主；此次雷暴過(guò)程是從邊界層頂發(fā)展維持的，是一次高架雷暴；中低層的逆溫層為此次高架雷暴的發(fā)生和發(fā)展提供了重要的溫度層結(jié)條件。模式能夠較好地重現(xiàn)本次冬季高架雷暴的發(fā)生—發(fā)展—入海減弱—消亡的過(guò)程。敏感試驗(yàn)表明：高架雷暴入海后，浙東海面的地形有利于雷暴回波的維持。更高的海面溫度使得低層大氣更加不穩(wěn)定，破壞了逆溫層結(jié)，使得高架雷暴入海后難以維持，這可能是此次冬季高架雷暴入海減弱的原因之一。

Based on Doppler weather radar data, surface observations, ERA5 hourly reanalysis data（with a horizontal resolution of 0.25°×0.25°）, and the WRF-ARW numerical model, an analysis was conducted on a winter thunderstorm event along the northern coast of Zhejiang that occurred on February 26, 2019. The results showed that this thunderstorm process was influenced by the surface cold high pressure and warm moist airflow at the middle and lower levels. There was a significant cold pool near the surface, with relatively stable stratification and dominant subsidence. In contrast, the middle and lower levels exhibited an inversion layer with favorable dynamic and moisture conditions, characterized by dominant upward motion. This thunderstorm developed and maintained from the top of the boundary layer, making it an elevated thunderstorm. The inversion layer in the middle and lower levels provided crucial thermal stratification condition for the development of this elevated thunderstorm. The WRF model was able to accurately reproduce the occurrence, development, weakening, and dissipation of this winter elevated thunderstorm. Sensitivity experiments showed that after the elevated thunderstorm moved over the sea, the terrain of the eastern Zhejiang sea area was conducive to the maintenance of thunderstorm. Higher sea surface temperature made the lower atmosphere more unstable disrupting the inversion layer and the elevated thunderstorm. This could be one of the reasons for the weakening of this winter elevated thunderstorm after it moved over the sea.

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